Economic implications of Russia penetrating into the Red Sea region

Earlier this month, reports emerged that Sudan and Russia have reached an agreement to establish a naval base on the country’s Red Sea coast. Sudan noted that there are “no obstacles” to the deal, reported BBC.

Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s former long-time President, had initiated discussions about the potential Russian Red Sea base back in 2017. Subsequent talks resulted in a preliminary agreement in 2020. But problems started to come up in later years.

The agreement is supposed to remain in force for 25 years. But the only thing that could not be done at the time of Bashir’s rule and is still the case today is the ratification of the deal. Sudan has not had a functioning parliament for multiple years.

Numerous hurdles to ratification of agreement

Since the fall of Omar al-Bashir’s regime, the agreement for a Russian Red Sea base has been facing more problems. The military leadership in the country has repeatedly delayed the ratification process. The ongoing internal conflict also poses numerous hurdles.

The Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces are fighting a brutal conflict for nearly a couple of years. People in the country are facing one of the most serious humanitarian crises across the globe.

Raging since 2023, this internal conflict has already killed tens of thousands of people – and a major portion of the population is facing acute hunger. Because of the clashes, aid agencies are also finding it difficult to help out more people in Sudan.

Can Sudan host Russian Red Sea base as conflict continues?

For quite a long time, Russia has been seeking to establish a base near Port Sudan. The Red Sea is a strategic route – immensely important for both defence and global commerce. Nonetheless, the possibility of Sudan ratifying the deal anytime soon is questionable.

Sudan has not had a functioning parliament for a long period, as already mentioned. On top of that, the internal conflict could make it difficult for Russia to have its potential naval base in the near future.

Russia has been deepening its interest in Port Sudan amid apparent fears of losing its military assets in Syria. BBC had earlier reported that Russia has been expanding its influence in the region, including signing cooperation agreements and displacing traditional allies.

Economic implications of Russia holding Red Sea base

Roland Biyamov, an expert on strategic issues, recently highlighted that the Red Sea base is going to help Russian ships fight pirates in the region and push the country’s economic and military projects across the continent.

Bases outside the territory of Russia enable the supply of fuel, ammunition and the rotation of personnel. Kremlin seeks to be present on important routes around India, East Asia and Europe, but also to formalise its military presence in Sudan.

The fate of the Russian base in Sudan depends on Sudan’s political situation, international pressures and Russia’s geopolitical ambitions. The West is definitely keeping a close eye, fearing Russian and Iranian penetrations into the Red Sea region.

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